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The national labs’ initiative has a five-year timeline, with a goal of developing sodium-ion batteries with energy densities that match or exceed those of today’s iron phosphate-based lithium-ion batteries. Researchers would do this by finding various efficiencies in design and materials.
The project is happening alongside the labs’ ongoing work to develop and improve other kinds of batteries.
Lithium-ion batteries dominate today’s market. This year, global production of lithium-ion batteries was about 1,500 gigawatt-hours, and production of sodium-ion batteries was 11 gigawatt-hours, or less than 1 percent, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
However, sodium-ion battery production is growing and is projected to reach 140 gigawatt-hours by 2030, about 13 times its current level, according to Benchmark. Lithium-ion production also is projected to nearly triple by 2030.
“The key market driver for sodium-ion batteries is their potential to be cost competitive with lithium-ion batteries,” said Catherine Peake, an analyst for Benchmark.
But cost competitiveness is a challenge right now because lithium prices are unusually low. The global supply of lithium has grown more quickly than demand since 2022, leading to lower prices.
Researchers and analysts expect that sodium-ion batteries will have a cost advantage over lithium-ion in the long run. McKinsey and Co. said last year that sodium-ion batteries have the potential to be 20 percent less costly than lithium-ion batteries. (Srinivasan agreed that 20 percent savings is plausible.)
Most of the push by battery companies to build sodium-ion systems is happening in China, but some of it is happening in other markets, including a plan by California-based Natron Energy to open its first large plant in Rocky Mount, North Carolina. Natron made its announcement about the $1.4 billion project in August and has not given a timeline for when the plant would be online.
Meanwhile, researchers and companies continue working on other battery technologies.
I asked Srinivasan how sodium-ion batteries fit into this larger picture. He said sodium-ion will likely gain market share over the next few years as an alternative to lithium-ion batteries.
Near the end of the decade, solid-state batteries will begin to become available, which would allow for higher energy densities and longer driving ranges. Solid-state batteries use a solid electrolyte instead of a liquid or gel. The electrolyte is the substance through which ions move as they go from side to side during charging and discharging.
The technologies can coexist in the market, Srinivasan said.
He thinks solid-state batteries will initially be most common in high-end models and popular with people who want the longest possible ranges.
He expects that sodium-ion batteries will be more common in low-cost EVs for people who live in cities or suburbs and don’t place a high premium on driving range.
“It will not be a fringe player,” he said, about sodium-ion. “It will actually be a fast-growing segment.”
This story originally appeared on Inside Climate News.